Crystal Ball: How IPOs and dealmaking will shake out in 2026

What’s Happening

Here’s the thing: Term Sheet readers sounded off on how they think the state of exits in the private markets will evolve through 2026.

2025 saw some big names, like Circle, go public to rousing success. On the M&A side, blockbuster deals like Google’s $32 billion Wiz acquisition made headlines. (shocking, we know)

Recommended Video But the hoped-for rising tide of exits did not come to lift all boats.

The Details

Some IPOs, like Navan, met with more muted reception. And overall IPO activity, while up from recent lows, remains below historical levels.

As 2026 gets underway, the fundamental circumstances that influence private market exits are largely the same: Private companies are bigger than ever by valuation, but they also have more liquidity levers than ever to pull without needing to tap the public markets. But that privilege is reserved for the best of breed.

Why This Matters

Further down the private company food chain, things are more complicated. Even for some promising AI startups, an acquihire to a giant is proving far more appealing than going at it alone. Which means acquisitions and other creative variations of dealmaking are also much in play.

Market watchers are paying close attention to developments like this.

Key Takeaways

• Here’s how Term Sheet readers are looking at the exit landscape in 2026, and what they’re predicting for IPOs and M&A.
• Note: Answers have been edited for clarity and brevity.
• IPOs IPO momentum will extend into early 2026, then slow.
• Right now, public equities are exceptionally strong, with high investor receptivity to tech, strong liquidity, and strong volume.

The Bottom Line

Our recent buyside discussions make it clear that the institutional market will be selective but look to put more capital to work behind their best ideas and grow with their winners. —Seth Rubin, Stifel head of global equity capital markets Although the U.

Is this a W or an L? You decide.