Men's Bubble Watch: Indiana, Texas will be sweating out S...

What’s Happening

Breaking it down: The Hoosiers and Longhorns took an L in their conference tournaments, leaving them right on the forecast cutlines.

Men’s Bubble Watch: Tracking which teams will make (or miss) the NCAA tournament play Northwestern Wildcats vs. Indiana Hoosiers: Game Highlights (1:17) Northwestern Wildcats vs. (wild, right?)

Indiana Hoosiers: Game Highlights (1:17) Neil Paine Mar 12, 2026, 12:15 AM ET Close Neil Paine writes about sports using data and analytics.

The Details

Before, he was Sports Editor at FiveThirtyEight. Follow on X Multiple Authors Email Print Open Extended Reactions With Selection Sunday rapidly approaching, many the fandom are wondering: Which teams will make the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament?

We’re tracking how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending using a variety of metrics as guides, classifying them based on how likely they are to make the field of 68 as one of the 37 at-large selections — conditional on not winning their respective conference tournaments for one of the 31 automatic qualifying bids (AQs). To that end, we’ll use Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology projections and a combination of data sources — including my forecast-model consensus and NCAA résumé metrics such as NET rankings that the selection committee will evaluate — to judge a team’s underlying potential.

Why This Matters

(For a full glossary of terms and sources, click here . ) Editor’s Picks Men’s college basketball awards: Consensus picks, plus season superlatives Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf Your guide to men’s basketball this March: Contenders, stars, storylines to watch Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf Bracketology watch guide: How Wednesday’s results impact NCAA tournament projections Joe Lunardi 2 Related We’ll sort teams in at-large contention into the following categories: Locks: Teams that have nearly a 100% chance to be called as an at-large selection without a conference tournament crown. There would need to be significant development that keeps them from making the field.

This could change the dynamics of the sport going forward.

The Bottom Line

There would need to be significant development that keeps them from making the field.

What do you think about all this?